Post by Amanda Kimmel on Jul 9, 2011 13:39:09 GMT -5
Okay, I don't mean to sound like your mom or anything, and you guys probably already know what you're doing, but I am still going to post about the basics of prediction writing. It's rather simple, really... just write what you think's going to happen. But the biggest part of this job is asking good questions to the players that get them thinking and get their head into the game... but at the same time don't reveal too much about the others' games.
Let's take a look at this sample from Brendan's confessional from Tocantins Remade, right after an immunity challenge where players competed in pairs:
Stephen knows both him and I are threats, he told me we needed to win cause we are targets, so clearly people have been talking about it, so I may just have to win the rest of the immunities from here on out. Also his story actually gave me some insight. Erinn and Debbie were barely in it, they were just followers of Me, and Joe and JT the same as followers of Stephen, adn Sierra was the one who was with us and ended up saving us and defeating Sandra and Spencer. That could mean that he has JT and Joe and he thinks I have Erinn and Debbie and that Sierra is the wild card, so I am sure he wants to target Spencer for one vote but I am assuming Joe or JT will not be his second. I have to figure out if he is voting Sierra Erinn or Debbie and see if I can get the idol to one of them to protect the 4 timbira
The biggest thing that Brendan doesn't know: Sierra's immunity idol is a farce.
Note how I'm revealing this to him AFTER the game. NEVER, EVER ask in reply to this "Do you suspect that Sierra is lying about her immunity idol?" That's too obvious. If the confessional had added, "I just hope that Sierra really does have that idol," that changes EVERYTHING. You can then ask "Do you think that Sierra really has that idol, or do you think she's trying to intimidate people?"
You don't want to ask something truthful that hasn't crossed the player's mind - get them thinking but don't give anything away. Let them come to it.
Since he's so good at it, here's another example from Brendan in the same game, AFTER that round was over:
DAMMIT LOL! This is the first time I feel doomed or not in control of this game. I knew this was going to happen and Stephen was going to flip back, I had a feeling voting Sydney off was a mistake and I should have gotten someone else and gotten her and Joe or Spencer on my side before Stephen did. I just didn't think Debbie would flip.
I am pretty sure how the votes went down:
Spencer and JT- Brendan
Joe and Sierra- Spencer
Spencer and JT- Erinn
Joe and JT- Sierra
Spencer and Erinn- Joe
Spencer and Erinn-Debbie
Spencer and Erinn-Stephen
Spencer and Erinn- JT
Debbie sent me a pm saying Stephen was trying to break Erinn and I up so I knew if I wasn't immune I would be going home, and I knew he was targetting Erinn and Spencer is was just predicting how everyone was voting to see the best two possible options and no matter what I did in the end it didn't matter how I voted.
Ugh I'm so frustrated now, but I hope Debbie will come back to Sierra and I and we can get Stephen out and we can use Sierras double vote and regain the lead. I am pretty sure that Debbie was the one who flipped and she was playing both sides very well, but I need to talk to her to know for sure.
To ask good questions, you want to pick at the little things. Here were mine:
1. What makes you think it was Debbie who flipped?
2. How important is getting that immunity idol and winning immunity challenges?
3. Is Sierra's double vote, good through next round, going to be beneficial? Or do you think she has other ideas?
4. Do you think you can regain control of this game?
A few notes here:
1. If they accuse someone but don't provide evidence, press further.
2. If they mention immunity or feel like they're on the outs, get them thinking about their A-game at challenges.
3. Ask about rewards that people know about. Never bring any up that they don't know about except for perhaps asking "Is the HII at all a concern at this point?" As long as they know that the HII is in play, that is - if they don't know one is, then don't ask them.
4. Pick at little things. Make them think harder and consider other options.
And remember: Do NOT EVER give something away that a player doesn't know. Don't tell them a blindside is coming. If they appear uneasy like it could be them, ask them things like:
"What makes it think it's you?"
"Who do you think will try to keep you around, if anyone?"
"Why do you think ___ would betray you?"
Stuff like that. Do not tell them what you think the result will be - that only goes in here.
Feel free to ask them about targets and plans - the more you get someone's head in the game, the better. Part of asking questions is to get the player thinking. Part of it is to help your writing. Some people won't do much of anything in their confessionals - so be sure to create a "Mid-game questions" thread in those confessionals. Keep asking them stuff so they can post on their own - if someone is already doing that, ask questions in reply to them rather than making your own, and in that case usually fewer are needed. Still, get them thinking more about the things they're already thinking about. You may also encounter posts where you really can't ask questions, at which point you can just ask general ones or skip asking entirely. Remember: You don't have to ask too many questions, since that can get overwhelming. Focus most on those that aren't posting anything to get their heads into the game. That may help prevent inactivity.
The writing is the easy part: Ask them the questions you want to know, and use their answers and other confessionals to predict what will happen. That's really all there is to it. You can either create your own PW topic, or you all can make one for each round. I don't really care how you do it. Feel free to talk to each other too!
You are free to ask ME questions if you have them! And enjoy prediction writing
Let's take a look at this sample from Brendan's confessional from Tocantins Remade, right after an immunity challenge where players competed in pairs:
Stephen knows both him and I are threats, he told me we needed to win cause we are targets, so clearly people have been talking about it, so I may just have to win the rest of the immunities from here on out. Also his story actually gave me some insight. Erinn and Debbie were barely in it, they were just followers of Me, and Joe and JT the same as followers of Stephen, adn Sierra was the one who was with us and ended up saving us and defeating Sandra and Spencer. That could mean that he has JT and Joe and he thinks I have Erinn and Debbie and that Sierra is the wild card, so I am sure he wants to target Spencer for one vote but I am assuming Joe or JT will not be his second. I have to figure out if he is voting Sierra Erinn or Debbie and see if I can get the idol to one of them to protect the 4 timbira
The biggest thing that Brendan doesn't know: Sierra's immunity idol is a farce.
Note how I'm revealing this to him AFTER the game. NEVER, EVER ask in reply to this "Do you suspect that Sierra is lying about her immunity idol?" That's too obvious. If the confessional had added, "I just hope that Sierra really does have that idol," that changes EVERYTHING. You can then ask "Do you think that Sierra really has that idol, or do you think she's trying to intimidate people?"
You don't want to ask something truthful that hasn't crossed the player's mind - get them thinking but don't give anything away. Let them come to it.
Since he's so good at it, here's another example from Brendan in the same game, AFTER that round was over:
DAMMIT LOL! This is the first time I feel doomed or not in control of this game. I knew this was going to happen and Stephen was going to flip back, I had a feeling voting Sydney off was a mistake and I should have gotten someone else and gotten her and Joe or Spencer on my side before Stephen did. I just didn't think Debbie would flip.
I am pretty sure how the votes went down:
Spencer and JT- Brendan
Joe and Sierra- Spencer
Spencer and JT- Erinn
Joe and JT- Sierra
Spencer and Erinn- Joe
Spencer and Erinn-Debbie
Spencer and Erinn-Stephen
Spencer and Erinn- JT
Debbie sent me a pm saying Stephen was trying to break Erinn and I up so I knew if I wasn't immune I would be going home, and I knew he was targetting Erinn and Spencer is was just predicting how everyone was voting to see the best two possible options and no matter what I did in the end it didn't matter how I voted.
Ugh I'm so frustrated now, but I hope Debbie will come back to Sierra and I and we can get Stephen out and we can use Sierras double vote and regain the lead. I am pretty sure that Debbie was the one who flipped and she was playing both sides very well, but I need to talk to her to know for sure.
To ask good questions, you want to pick at the little things. Here were mine:
1. What makes you think it was Debbie who flipped?
2. How important is getting that immunity idol and winning immunity challenges?
3. Is Sierra's double vote, good through next round, going to be beneficial? Or do you think she has other ideas?
4. Do you think you can regain control of this game?
A few notes here:
1. If they accuse someone but don't provide evidence, press further.
2. If they mention immunity or feel like they're on the outs, get them thinking about their A-game at challenges.
3. Ask about rewards that people know about. Never bring any up that they don't know about except for perhaps asking "Is the HII at all a concern at this point?" As long as they know that the HII is in play, that is - if they don't know one is, then don't ask them.
4. Pick at little things. Make them think harder and consider other options.
And remember: Do NOT EVER give something away that a player doesn't know. Don't tell them a blindside is coming. If they appear uneasy like it could be them, ask them things like:
"What makes it think it's you?"
"Who do you think will try to keep you around, if anyone?"
"Why do you think ___ would betray you?"
Stuff like that. Do not tell them what you think the result will be - that only goes in here.
Feel free to ask them about targets and plans - the more you get someone's head in the game, the better. Part of asking questions is to get the player thinking. Part of it is to help your writing. Some people won't do much of anything in their confessionals - so be sure to create a "Mid-game questions" thread in those confessionals. Keep asking them stuff so they can post on their own - if someone is already doing that, ask questions in reply to them rather than making your own, and in that case usually fewer are needed. Still, get them thinking more about the things they're already thinking about. You may also encounter posts where you really can't ask questions, at which point you can just ask general ones or skip asking entirely. Remember: You don't have to ask too many questions, since that can get overwhelming. Focus most on those that aren't posting anything to get their heads into the game. That may help prevent inactivity.
The writing is the easy part: Ask them the questions you want to know, and use their answers and other confessionals to predict what will happen. That's really all there is to it. You can either create your own PW topic, or you all can make one for each round. I don't really care how you do it. Feel free to talk to each other too!
You are free to ask ME questions if you have them! And enjoy prediction writing